NatCat Model

Economic losses both direct and indirect are continuously increasing due to disasters linked to natural hazards. The increasing frequency of natural hazards, and the overall physical, ecological, and socio-economic vulnerabilities of the communities have a huge role to play in amplifying the risk posed by natural hazards. Likewise, the increasing population growth rate and uneven population densities come into play as well, increasing the exposure and respective value at risk.

The system dynamics are not much different for Pakistan. The country is exposed to both hydro-meteorological and geophysical hazards. Earthquake and floods (fluvial, flash, and urban) are amongst the most disrupting hazards that the country has been observing over the past few decades. The overall vulnerability of the country to incur a loss to these natural hazards is visualized in the following:

Figure: Vulnerability Map

Without risk-informed interventions, this trend of increasing exposure and arising losses is likely to continue. NDRMF is, therefore, embarking on a journey to develop a NatCat model for Pakistan. The NatCat model is to be developed for the following perils in this phase:

• Earthquake
• Fluvial Floods
• Droughts
• Tropical Cyclones

The NatCat model will provide quantitative information on the expected levels of loss for hazard events of varying types, intensities, and return periods, including Probable Maximum Loss (PML) curves. The model will eventually be positioned on an accessible open source platform and will include the following components:

Figure: Model Components